Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9LeMahieu singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, Calhoun to second, Torres to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Jansen homered to left (365 feet), Kirk scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 8Volpe homered to right center (364 feet), Peraza scored.0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- TOR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +25 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +45 Elo | NYY 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 11th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 8–69th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.