Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SuarezPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rendon hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Judge hit sacrifice fly to left, Higashioka scored, Volpe to second, Hicks to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Volpe walked, Peraza scored, Hicks to second, Higashioka to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 44–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Renfroe doubled to left, Rendon scored, Renfroe to third.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Rendon singled to right, Trout scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (391 feet), Ward scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −8 | LAA: Jose Suarez: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +36 Elo | NYY 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.14th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.64th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–48th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.