Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-5
- Griffin CanningPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.2–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Urshela singled to center, Renfroe scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Ward grounded out to shortstop, Thaiss scored, Neto to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Judge homered to left center (412 feet), Volpe scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- LAA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +15 Elo | NYY 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.520th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.24th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.36th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 6–511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–0 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.