Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Belt doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Bichette scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 34–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 6Belt homered to center (416 feet), Varsho scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Cabrera homered to right (349 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (417 feet), Springer scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- TOR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +9 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.12nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.56th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 8–59th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.