Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peraza singled to left, Judge scored, Torres to second, Rizzo to third.3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 7Kiner-Falefa singled to center, LeMahieu scored and Torres scored, Cabrera to third.3–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7LeMahieu doubled to left, Rizzo scored, Torres to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7O'Hoppe doubled to left, Rengifo scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Rengifo scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 5O'Hoppe singled to left, Drury scored, Rengifo to third.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Trevino doubled to left, Peraza scored, Rizzo scored and LeMahieu scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Peraza walked, Judge scored, LeMahieu to second, Rizzo to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 40–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Rizzo singled to center, Volpe scored, Judge to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Fair odds
- NYY -113
- LAA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +21 Elo | NYY 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.12nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.36th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 7–58th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.