Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rizzo homered to right center (377 feet).5–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 9Jansen grounded into fielder's choice to third, Chapman scored, Kirk out at second.5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Jansen doubled to left, Merrifield scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 6Varsho homered to right (389 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to left (368 feet), Bichette scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +12 Elo | NYY 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 9–68th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.