New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting2-3
- Jhony BritoPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cabrera grounded into fielder's choice to third, Torres scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, LeMahieu out at third.1–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 8Correa tripled to right, Kepler scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 6Polanco doubled to left, Kepler scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Gallo homered to right center (432 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Buxton grounded out to pitcher, Kepler scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Polanco singled to right, Taylor scored and Vázquez scored, Kepler to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- NYY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +15 | NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +28 Elo | MIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 5–410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.