Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Senzel homered to left (369 feet), Newman scored.3–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Miller hit sacrifice fly to center, Thompson scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Friedl hit sacrifice fly to left, Senzel scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 12–2
- 5García hit sacrifice fly to right, Taveras scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Lowe doubled to left, Semien scored, Taveras to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Newman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ramos scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Ramos tripled to left, Stephenson scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -106
- TEX +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +19 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +10 Elo | CIN 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.5 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 8–67th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–2 CIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.