Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Friedl singled to right, India scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Senzel walked, Fairchild scored, Ramos to second, Myers to third.6–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 46–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 8Ramos walked, Steer scored, Myers to second, Fairchild to third.6–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 46–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 4Grossman singled to right, Thompson scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 3Stephenson grounded out to third, Steer scored.5–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 3Steer tripled to center, India scored and Friedl scored.5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 3Jung homered to center (418 feet), García scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Semien singled to left, Taveras scored, Thompson to second.3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Fair odds
- CIN -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.6 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.9 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 6–615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.