Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8India singled to center, Barrero scored and Fraley scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 8Fraley doubled to left, Ramos scored and Senzel scored, Barrero to third.6–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 8Senzel singled to left, Stephenson scored, Ramos to second.6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Ramos reached on infield single to pitcher, Fairchild scored, Stephenson to second.6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Senzel singled to left, Ramos scored, Newman to second.6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6J. Smith homered to left (372 feet).6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Jung doubled to center, García scored and Jankowski scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Semien homered to left (362 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Heim grounded out to first, Lowe scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Fair odds
- CIN -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | TEX: Martin Perez: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +17 Elo | TEX 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.6 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.7 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 7–612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.