New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Domingo GermanPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Twins- Jose MirandaBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Brent HeadrickPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8LeMahieu hit sacrifice fly to left, Volpe scored.12–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–6
- 7Kepler grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gordon scored, Castro out at second.11–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 6Gallo homered to right (380 feet), Miranda scored.11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–5
- 4Miranda homered to left center (393 feet), Larnach scored.11–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–1
- 4Torres homered to left center (429 feet), Rizzo scored.11–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 29–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 4Rizzo doubled to right, Judge scored and Volpe scored.9–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 4Volpe doubled to center, Cabrera scored and Higashioka scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 2Miranda homered to left (367 feet).5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Judge doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Volpe scored and Cabrera scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Volpe singled to right, Calhoun scored, Cabrera to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Calhoun reached on infield single to first, Torres scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- NYY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.9 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −13 | NYY: Domingo German: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +10 Elo | MIN 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 7–45th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.