New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jose TrevinoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Trevino homered to left (389 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Duran reached on infield single to third, Grossman scored, Heim to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Heim grounded into fielder's choice to first, Semien scored, Lowe out at second, Grossman to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Volpe singled to left, Peraza scored, Hicks to second, Trevino to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Torres homered to center (443 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2LeMahieu homered to right (347 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Fair odds
- TEX -111
- NYY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | +9 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +14 Elo | TEX 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 6.42nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +2.32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 8–45th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.