Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Emmanuel RiveraBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rivera singled to left, Thomas scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Longoria singled to left, Rivera scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Fair odds
- ARI -121
- KC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +23 | KC: Ryan Yarbrough (no track record yet) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 1.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +70 Elo | ARI 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.812th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–6 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–1 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.