MLB games
Updated
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Hunter DozierBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dozier singled to right, Duffy scored and Perez scored, Dozier thrown out at second, Melendez to third.11–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–8
- 9Melendez hit by pitch, Olivares scored, Duffy to second, Perez to third.9–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 9Olivares singled to center, Isbel scored.8–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–8
- 9Isbel doubled to right, Lopez to home on error, Isbel to third on throwing error by right fielder Renfroe.7–8
- 9Isbel doubled to right, Lopez to home on error, Isbel to third on throwing error by right fielder Renfroe.7–8
- 9Isbel doubled to right, Lopez to home on error, Isbel to third on throwing error by right fielder Renfroe.7–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–8
- 8Thaiss homered to right (389 feet), Renfroe scored.6–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–8
- 6Neto singled to right, Drury scored.6–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 6Renfroe homered to left (375 feet).6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 6Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Duffy scored and Melendez scored on fielding error by first baseman Urshela, Lopez to first on error by first baseman Urshela, Dozier safe at second on e6–4
- 6Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop first, Duffy scored and Melendez scored, Lopez to first on error by first baseman Urshela, Dozier out at second, Lopez to second.6–4
- 6Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Duffy scored and Melendez scored on fielding error by first baseman Urshela, Lopez to first on error by first baseman Urshela, Dozier safe at second on e6–4
- 6Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Duffy scored and Melendez scored on fielding error by first baseman Urshela, Lopez to first on error by first baseman Urshela, Dozier safe at second on e6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Dozier reached on infield single to third, Pasquantino scored, Melendez to second, Duffy to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Trout homered to center (425 feet), Rengifo scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Toss-upMiss
KC 46%LAA 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +47 Elo | LAA 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
RoyalsAngels
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–1 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.