Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Angels- Chad WallachBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 3Wallach homered to left center (424 feet), Neto scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 60%
- Fair odds
- LAA -121
- KC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +20 | KC: Taylor Clarke (no track record yet) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +73 Elo | LAA 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.812th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.