Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Witt Jr. homered to center (392 feet).3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Ohtani homered to center (415 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Trout homered to center (389 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Ward homered to left (376 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pasquantino homered to center (388 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to left, Ward scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Melendez homered to center (395 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Fair odds
- LAA -117
- KC +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −7 | KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +36 Elo | LAA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.812th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–1 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.