Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-4
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rivera reached on infield single to shortstop, Carroll scored on error and Gurriel Jr. scored on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr., Rivera to second.5–4
- 8Rivera reached on infield single to shortstop, Carroll scored on error and Gurriel Jr. scored on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr., Rivera to second.5–4
- 8Rivera reached on infield single to shortstop, Carroll scored on error and Gurriel Jr. scored on throwing error by shortstop Witt Jr., Rivera to second.5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Isbel scored on Misiewicz wild pitch.5–2
- 8Isbel scored on Misiewicz wild pitch.5–2
- 7Rojas hit sacrifice fly to right, Moreno scored, Thomas to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Reyes hit sacrifice fly to center, Olivares scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Massey singled to left, Perez scored, Olivares to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Walker grounded out to second, Carroll scored, Walker out at first.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Lopez singled to center, Dozier scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Olivares singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Fair odds
- ARI -122
- KC +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.4 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −2 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +67 Elo | ARI 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Road vs home | 7–57th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–1 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.