Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brad KellerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ahmed grounded into fielder's choice to first, Walker scored, Ahmed second, Moreno to second, Moreno safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Pasquantino.4–5
- 8Ahmed grounded into fielder's choice to first, Walker scored, Ahmed second, Moreno to second, Moreno safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Pasquantino.4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 8Isbel singled to right, Massey scored, Lopez to second.4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Perez doubled to center, Olivares scored, Pasquantino to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3Moreno grounded out to third, Gurriel Jr. scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Smith singled to right, Carroll scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Perez singled to left, Pasquantino scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Perdomo reached on infield single to second, Smith scored, McCarthy to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Thomas hit sacrifice fly to right, Gurriel Jr. scored, Smith to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Olivares homered to left (412 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -118
- KC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | KC: Brad Keller: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Tommy Henry (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +39 Elo | ARI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 4.812th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–5 | Road vs home | 6–511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.