Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-4
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker singled to right, Thomas scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 9Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Moreno scored, Thomas to third.8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Rojas doubled to center, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Moreno hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to third, Walker scored on error, Carroll safe at second on error by second baseman Trejo, Carroll safe at third on error.3–1
- 7Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to third, Walker scored on error, Carroll safe at second on error by second baseman Trejo, Carroll safe at third on error.3–1
- 7Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to third, Walker scored on error, Carroll safe at second on error by second baseman Trejo, Carroll safe at third on error.3–1
- 7Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to third, Walker scored on error, Carroll safe at second on error by second baseman Trejo, Carroll safe at third on error.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Walker doubled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Cron singled to right, Tovar scored, Profar to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Marte homered to left (435 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Fair odds
- COL -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +8 Elo | ARI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.826th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 15th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 3–726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.