Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-4
- Cal QuantrillPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Trejo singled to left, Moustakas scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Profar singled to left, Doyle scored and Tovar scored, Blackmon to second.5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Tovar singled to left, Díaz scored and Moustakas scored, Doyle to second, Tovar to second, Doyle safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.3–0
- 4Tovar singled to left, Díaz scored and Moustakas scored, Doyle to second, Tovar to second, Doyle safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Profar homered to right (347 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Fair odds
- CLE -121
- COL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +15 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +69 Elo | CLE 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 3–625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.