Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Yonathan DazaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Castellanos homered to left center (387 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Moustakas hit sacrifice fly to right, Blackmon scored, Profar to second.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Daza doubled to center, McMahon scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Pache homered to center (421 feet), Marsh scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Profar grounded out to shortstop, Trejo scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Castellanos homered to left (378 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -115
- COL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.122nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −0.821st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 4–413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.