Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Josh HarrisonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 2 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harrison homered to left center (399 feet), Cave scored.7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 3Vaughn singled to center, Benintendi scored and Robert Jr. scored.5–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Robert Jr. doubled to right, Sosa scored and Andrus scored, Benintendi to third.5–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Harrison singled to center, Castellanos scored and Realmuto scored, Bohm to third.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Bohm singled to right, Castellanos scored and Schwarber scored, Marsh to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Castellanos singled to right, Stott scored, Schwarber to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Fair odds
- CHW -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 5.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −16 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +1 Elo | CHW 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.617th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 6.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.425th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.