Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-3
- Bailey FalterPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Jake BurgerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 1Burger homered to left (417 feet), Robert Jr. scored and Jiménez scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Fair odds
- CHW -107
- PHI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 5.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −6 | PHI: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +12 Elo | PHI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.617th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 6.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.526th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.