Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 4Turner doubled to left, Stott scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Stott doubled to right, Harrison scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Castellanos singled to left, Turner scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Marsh homered to left center (378 feet).2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Vaughn homered to left (378 feet), Robert Jr. scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Turner homered to left center (379 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Fair odds
- CHW -111
- PHI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 4.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +22 Elo | CHW 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.520th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.325th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 26th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 CHW in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.