Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah DavisPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa singled to left, Realmuto scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Schwarber homered to right (363 feet).3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Cave reached on infield single to third, Marsh scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Castellanos scored, Realmuto to second, Marsh to third.3–1
- 4Castellanos scored, Realmuto to second, Marsh to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 1McMahon homered to center (408 feet), Bryant scored and Blackmon scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -112
- COL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −3 | COL: Noah Davis: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +14 Elo | PHI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 5.323rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.922nd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.