Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- C.J. CronBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-4
- Matt StrahmPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moustakas doubled to right, Daza scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Trejo walked, Cron scored, Daza to second, Díaz to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 44–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Díaz singled to left, McMahon scored, Cron to second.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Cron homered to left (398 feet), Profar scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Fair odds
- PHI -117
- COL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.5 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −3 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Matt Strahm: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +55 Elo | PHI 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.617th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 5.323rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.