Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marsh homered to right center (395 feet), Pache scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 7Stott homered to right (366 feet), Bohm scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Bohm doubled to center, Realmuto scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Bohm grounded out to shortstop, Castellanos scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Realmuto grounded into fielder's choice to third, Schwarber scored, Marsh out at second, Castellanos to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Tovar singled to right, Cron scored, Daza to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Castro hit sacrifice fly to center, McMahon scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Daza hit by pitch, Profar scored, Cron to second, McMahon to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Clemens homered to right (372 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–1
- 1Turner homered to left center (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -117
- COL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | COL: Jose Urena: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +44 Elo | PHI 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 5–410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.