Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Peyton BattenfieldPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rosario hit sacrifice fly to right, Kwan scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 6Doyle doubled to left, Trejo scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Bryant singled to left, Blackmon scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Profar hit sacrifice fly to center, Tovar scored, Blackmon to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Blackmon doubled to right, Doyle scored, Tovar to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Blackmon homered to right (379 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Fair odds
- CLE -117
- COL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Peyton Battenfield: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +46 Elo | CLE 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.0 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 3–726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.