Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Brennan grounded out to second, Giménez scored, Straw to second.1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Bryant singled to right, Profar scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 4Gonzalez doubled to left, Giménez scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Naylor homered to right center (402 feet), Ramírez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 50%
- Fair odds
- CLE -112
- COL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −7 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +2 Elo | CLE 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 3–827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–0 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.