Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker homered to left (373 feet).11–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 110–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–4
- 8Herrera doubled to right, Thomas scored.10–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 39–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 6Doyle grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Cron scored, Grichuk out at second.9–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 29–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 6Cron doubled to left, McMahon scored.9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6McMahon doubled to center, Díaz scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Perdomo singled to right, Herrera scored.9–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 38–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 4Walker singled to center, Perdomo scored.8–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 2Trejo singled to right, McMahon scored, Doyle to third.7–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 2Perdomo homered to right center (413 feet), Herrera scored and Rojas scored.7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Rojas singled to left, Rivera scored and Thomas scored, Herrera to second.4–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Fair odds
- COL -105
- ARI +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +14 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Noah Davis: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +10 Elo | COL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.728th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −2.027th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 3–826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.