Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Thompson scored on Ginkel wild pitch, Semien to third on wild pitch by Ginkel.4–6
- 7Thompson scored on Ginkel wild pitch, Semien to third on wild pitch by Ginkel.4–6
- 6Duran homered to center (431 feet), Heim scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Jankowski singled to center, Grossman scored, Semien to second.4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Semien singled to left, Duran scored, Grossman to second.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Walker homered to right center (402 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Perdomo scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Lowe singled to left, Semien scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Fletcher singled to left, Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Marte homered to right center (405 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Fair odds
- TEX -111
- ARI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.9 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +27 | −3 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 1.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +5 Elo | TEX 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 6.42nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +2.62nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 11–55th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.