Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Evan LongoriaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Rockies- C.J. CronBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thomas reached on infield single to shortstop, Ahmed scored.4–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–12
- 8Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Rivera scored.3–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–12
- 8Rivera doubled to left, Fletcher scored.2–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–12
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 7Blackmon doubled to right, Grichuk scored, Castro to third.1–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–12
- 7Castro reached on infield single to first, Moustakas scored, Grichuk to third.1–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–11
- 6Cron singled to left, Profar scored.1–10
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 6McMahon grounded out to pitcher, Tovar scored, Profar to second.1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Tovar doubled to right, Castro scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 6Castro doubled to center, Grichuk scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Blackmon hit sacrifice fly to right, Castro scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Moustakas singled to left, Díaz scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 3Cron homered to left center (424 feet), Blackmon scored and Profar scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 48%
- Fair odds
- COL -102
- ARI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.1 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +13 Elo | ARI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.928th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.228th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 3–927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.