Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 4Marte hit sacrifice fly to left, Moreno scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Fletcher scored, Perdomo to second, Moreno to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Carroll homered to left center (403 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1García homered to left (344 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +25 | +9 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 1.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +17 Elo | ARI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.28th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.920th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 8–612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.