Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting3-4
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mervis singled to center, Bellinger scored, Mancini to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Gurriel hit sacrifice fly to left, Berti scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 5Happ homered to center (423 feet), Swanson scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Suzuki singled to left, Hoerner scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Fair odds
- CHC -115
- MIA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +16 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +70 Elo | CHC 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 8–817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–0 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.