Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Collin McHughPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching4.1 IP, 11 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies homered to left (401 feet).14–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 213–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 113–6
- 7Sánchez homered to center (420 feet), Edwards scored.13–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul13–4
- 5Riley homered to left center (407 feet), Olson scored.13–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 111–4
- 5Acuña Jr. homered to center (461 feet), Ozuna scored and Pillar scored.11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 3Fortes singled to right, Sánchez scored, Hampson to second.8–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 28–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 3Arraez doubled to left, Gurriel scored.8–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 3Ozuna homered to left (360 feet).8–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 2Segura scored on error, Berti safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Grissom.7–2
- 2Segura scored on error, Berti safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Grissom.7–2
- 2Segura scored on error, Berti safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Grissom.7–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 2Fortes grounded out to shortstop, Sánchez scored.7–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 2Albies doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Murphy to third.7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Harris II homered to right center (391 feet), Pillar scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Ozuna homered to left (434 feet), Murphy scored, Albies scored and Grissom scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -108
- ATL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +15 | ATL: Kyle Wright: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +15 Elo | MIA 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.425th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–3 | Road vs home | 10–713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 4–1 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.