Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-2
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Olson homered to right center (433 feet), Harris II scored and Acuña Jr. scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Acuña Jr. singled to right, Pillar scored, Harris II to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Fair odds
- NYM -107
- ATL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −7 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +8 Elo | ATL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–2 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.