Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Yuli GurrielBatting1-4
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Murphy walked, Grissom scored, Riley to second, Olson to third.6–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 46–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 8Riley walked, Ozuna scored, Olson to second, Grissom to third.5–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 45–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 8Acuña Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Harris II scored, Ozuna to third.4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Rosario singled to right, Olson scored, Murphy to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Rosario grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Olson scored, Murphy out at second, Riley to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Albies homered to right (367 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 48%
- Fair odds
- MIA -105
- ATL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −11 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +17 Elo | ATL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.225th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–3 | Road vs home | 10–66th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.