Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Stephen NogosekPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Escobar homered to left (377 feet).9–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–7
- 7Vogelbach grounded into fielder's choice to first, Lindor scored on error and Alonso scored on throwing error by shortstop Grissom, McNeil out at second.9–7
- 7Vogelbach grounded into fielder's choice to first, Lindor scored on error and Alonso scored on throwing error by shortstop Grissom, McNeil out at second.9–7
- 7Vogelbach grounded into fielder's choice to first, Lindor scored on error and Alonso scored on throwing error by shortstop Grissom, McNeil out at second.9–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 7Murphy homered to center (412 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored.9–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Baty homered to right center (430 feet).6–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 3Alonso homered to right center (380 feet), Marte scored and Lindor scored.6–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 2Acuña Jr. homered to left center (448 feet).6–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 35–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 2Pillar homered to left (376 feet), Harris II scored.5–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Lindor singled to right, Nimmo scored, Marte to third.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Murphy homered to left (373 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 47%
- Fair odds
- NYM -105
- ATL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −10 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYM: Denyi Reyes (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +23 Elo | ATL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–2 | Road vs home | 5–516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.