Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Eddie RosarioBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8McNeil homered to right center (400 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Álvarez doubled to left, Canha scored and Vogelbach scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Rosario doubled to center, Murphy scored, Tromp scored and Olson scored, Rosario to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Marte singled to center, Baty scored, Nimmo to second.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Vogelbach doubled to center, McNeil scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Fair odds
- NYM -107
- ATL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +4 Elo | NYM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–2 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–0 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.