Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan DoddPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grissom hit sacrifice fly to right, Riley scored, Murphy to third.6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 9Olson homered to right (360 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Soler doubled to left, Burdick scored, Berti to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Ozuna homered to left center (447 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Acuña Jr. singled to center, Rosario scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Pillar hit sacrifice fly to right, Ozuna scored, Rosario to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Soler homered to left center (424 feet), Berti scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Murphy doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -106
- ATL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +13 | ATL: Dylan Dodd: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +5 Elo | MIA 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.627th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–3 | Road vs home | 10–815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 5–1 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.