Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hampson doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.2–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 7Smith singled to center, Rivera scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 31–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Marte reached on infield single to shortstop, Smith scored, Thomas to second, Moreno to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Moreno singled to center, Longoria scored, Smith to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Walker homered to left (459 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Sánchez doubled to left, Fortes scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Walker doubled to left, Rivera scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Fair odds
- ARI -118
- MIA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.7 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +20 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +68 Elo | ARI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 10–710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–1 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.