Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Yuli GurrielBatting1-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching8.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-6, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 14Hampson scored on a balk.5–4
- 14Hampson scored.5–4
- 13Happ singled to center, Hoerner scored.4–4
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 13Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 13Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Fortes scored.4–3
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Hoerner singled to center, Mervis scored, Suzuki to second.3–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 10Wendle tripled to right, Segura scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 12–2
- 9Hosmer singled to right, Bellinger scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Bellinger doubled to center, Happ scored, Bellinger to third.2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 8Soler singled to center, Berti scored.2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Gurriel homered to left (364 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Fair odds
- CHC -115
- MIA +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −10 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +48 Elo | CHC 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–9 | Road vs home | 10–816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.