Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Nick MadrigalBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Amaya reached on infield single to second, Madrigal scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Madrigal singled to right, Bellinger scored and Velázquez scored, Madrigal to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Mervis singled to left, Bellinger scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Soler homered to left (395 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1De La Cruz singled to right, Soler scored, Gurriel to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 11 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Fair odds
- CHC -116
- MIA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +10 | MIA: Matt Barnes (no track record yet) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +62 Elo | CHC 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 9–818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 3–1 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.