Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Evan LongoriaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Longoria homered to left (408 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Soler homered to left center (433 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 36–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Ahmed singled to left, Walker scored, Carroll to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Soler homered to left center (468 feet), Berti scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Arraez singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −16 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +19 Elo | ARI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.921st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–10 | Road vs home | 11–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–2 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.