Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Davis singled to left, Estrada scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Smith singled to left, Meneses scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Schmitt homered to center (420 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Haniger doubled to center, Estrada scored and Slater scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -112
- WSH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +22 Elo | SF 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 9–918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.