Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-4
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9O. Miller singled to left, Contreras scored, Anderson to second.1–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 7Wisely homered to center (412 feet).0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Estrada homered to left (376 feet), Wade Jr. scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Bart doubled to left, Conforto scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +12 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +21 Elo | SF 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 8–716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–1 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.