San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-3
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-3
- Hunter BrownPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Sabol doubled to left, Pederson scored, Conforto to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pederson singled to left, Estrada scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Fair odds
- HOU -118
- SF +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +12 | SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +47 Elo | HOU 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 8–920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.