St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9DeJong doubled to left, Burleson scored, Donovan to third.3–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 8Wade Jr. tripled to right, Conforto scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 8Conforto singled to left, Estrada scored, Conforto to second.2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Flores homered to left center (384 feet), Haniger scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Haniger scored on Hicks wild pitch, Flores to second on wild pitch by Hicks.2–3
- 5Haniger scored on Hicks wild pitch, Flores to second on wild pitch by Hicks.2–3
- 4Slater singled to right, Sabol scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–1
- 4Wade Jr. homered to center (407 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Goldschmidt homered to center (425 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left center (397 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Fair odds
- SF -113
- STL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +30 Elo | SF 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 6–616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–2 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.