St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7DeJong homered to center (408 feet).7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Gorman homered to right center (402 feet), Knizner scored and Nootbaar scored.6–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3O'Neill singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Contreras to second.3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2France singled to left, Crawford scored and Wong scored, France to second, Rodríguez to third on throwing error by left fielder O'Neill.2–3
- 2France singled to left, Crawford to home on error and Wong scored, France to second, Rodríguez to second, Rodríguez to third on throwing error by left fielder O'Neill.2–3
- 2France singled to left, Crawford to home on error and Wong scored, France to second, Rodríguez to second, Rodríguez to third on throwing error by left fielder O'Neill.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Kelenic homered to left (357 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Arenado struck out swinging, Goldschmidt scored, Gorman caught stealing second, catcher to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Nootbaar homered to right center (403 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- STL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −26 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +11 Elo | STL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 7–818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–2 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.