St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman homered to right (344 feet).4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Suárez singled to left, Wong scored and Crawford scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Hernández homered to center (392 feet), Raleigh scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Gorman doubled to right, Contreras scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Contreras doubled to right, Burleson scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Kelenic homered to left center (370 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Arenado singled to right, Nootbaar scored, Burleson to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Fair odds
- SEA -115
- STL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +28 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 1.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +57 Elo | SEA 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–4 | Road vs home | 6–821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.